"We forgot to hook up the doll!"

[esidle]

My newest rugged laptop design has an issue, or error, that occurs once every twelve hours. As I sit at my lab bench debugging the issue, I ponder the technological advancements affecting the publishing industry... changes that some are hoping will cause the inevitable “CTRL-ALT-DEL.”

Lab Space

labspace.jpg (39.12 KiB) Viewed 2089 times

The difference is, my poor laptop has a reproducible, periodic failure. In contrast, many in publishing have recently had to adapt to an accelerating influx of changes and influences. I guest-blogged about the matter on Bob Mayer's Write it Forward discussing how the industry as a whole is going through what techie nerds like me call a “Strategic Inflection Point.”

But...“Hold on!” some have said...evidence shows that while e-Books are on the rise, they have a long way to go. This leads us to the most common questions:

When will eBooks take over?

and

When will the industry change from what it is today, to what it will be tomorrow?

From a technology standpoint, the answer is this: digital books will overcome traditional books when the infrastructure, not the economy or the industry, enables it.

A few weeks ago, I participated in a three-person panel with Kristin Nelson and Janet Fogg about the future of technology in publishing at RMFW's Colorado Gold conference. During the panel, the point was raised that although MP3s have been out for nearly a decade, they only represent 40% of the market space. I've seen many blogs and articles that use this data as a defense for why eBooks will not take over in the next 5-10 years.

This analogy is misleading.

Digital downloads account for 40 percent of overall music market,. The reason for the decade long rise was the limited infrastructure to get a digital song. If you follow the percentage of Americans who have high-speed internet over the last decade, then overlay that with the percentage of digital songs sold vs. CD, you can see how they relate. The infrastructure took time to saturate the market.

Other than the attachment to the smell and feel of paper, E-books do not have as many hindrances.

Already, most advanced or developed countries have a 60-70% populace with high-speed internet. In addition, we're now barraged with the latest inventions: tablets, upon tablets, ebook readers, mobile phone devices, etc.

So what are the current infrastructure hindrances holding back the eBook revolution:

1. Displays. They are just not there... yet.
(a) TFT and LCD displays are difficult to read in daylight. Back lit displays are difficult to see / hard on the eyes (for some) after long periods of time.
(b) eInk is a wonderful technology but refresh rates and lack of color is hampering it. These changes are coming in the next year or two.
(c) Samsung's AMOLED technology is amazing and soon they will advance to easy-to-read screens, some transparent like in the video example below. High production costs are currently holding OLED technology back.

2. Cost-sensitive Devices.
(a) Cost of manufacturing is a current problem. There is a shortage of display manufacturers in the world, and required electronics (wifi, cell, Arm core CPUs, etc) is still costly. Once manufacturing prices drop, we'll see $59.00 to $99.00 eReaders devices and tablets. Sub-$100 price ranges are always a market boost in any electronic space.

3. Standards for digital reviews, regardless of source.
(a) Perhaps NathanBransford.com will be a locale for “what's hot in the digital world.” Possibly it'll be Publisher's Weekly that will embrace the non-traditional published fiction. Other than “user reviews” on Amazon, B&N, etc, readers currently do not have many options on reviews regardless of whether it's self, e-, or traditionally published.

I strive to write a great fantasy book akin to my recent heroes like Brandon Sanderson, Eldon Thompson, and Carol Berg. Although I'm editing (for the sixth time) my first novel, and have started my second novel, I have no fears of my success in the digital future…possibly in e-publishing.

Working deep in technology and consulting for start-ups, I'm confident that, should I decide to eBook publish instead of traditional publish, the infrastructure will be there whence I make my decision.

In the meantime, I return to my newest design, hoping to solve this once-every-twelve-hours bug before an upcoming trade show where my new baby will be displayed to the world.

I will leave you off with the following video. Please note the technology for just about all of this is already here. Getting it to the customers with a reasonable price tag is all that’s missing.




(P.s. My real post would include tons of links embedded, which I have not done here.)

[Mira]

Interesting. You got me thinking - I think there may be another hinderance, but I'm not sure exactly what it is...need to think some more. Interesting post.

[esidle]

If you think of another, please voice it, as I'd love to discuss.

Of course there is a big one: Many people like the look, feel, and smell of a good book.
That will decrese with time, just as "hand written" or "scribed" books went out of style when the printing press was invented.
Although there's quite a few people who love to read a caligraphy or other artistic-written book, it became a rare breed.

Eric.

[Mira]

Yes - the nostalgia some readers hold for books. And I think you're right that will change over time. I also have a vague sense that e-readers will work better when they are attached to other gadgets and/or become very easy to carry. Lugging around an e-reader just on its own may not work for some. The I-pad works well because you can do so much on it. I have Kindle on my I-phone, and love it because I can put it in my pocket, and I have everything in one place.

So, as things become more compact, and more centralized, there will be less of a barrier. I think that's what I was grasping for last night.

Very interesting discussion - thank you!